Retail Planby RetailNorthstar

How to control markdowns before the season starts

Most markdown spend is decided at the buy, not at the markdown. Control it upstream — in the size curve, the option count, and the open-to-buy — and the season needs fewer markdowns to clear.

RetailNorthstar Editorial5 min read

The fastest way to take markdowns is to treat them as a pricing decision in week 10. The most effective way to avoid them is to treat them as an inventory decision in week zero. By the time a style is marked down, the money was usually lost much earlier — in an overbuy, a broken size curve, or a delivery that missed the full-price window.

That reframe matters because it moves the lever to where you actually control it. You cannot mark your way out of a bad buy; you can only buy your way out of a markdown problem.

Markdowns are a symptom of three upstream decisions

Walk back from any deep markdown and you usually land on one of three causes. The first is simply buying too much — committing receipts beyond what the plan could sell at full price, which the open-to-buy is meant to prevent. The second is buying the wrong shape: an even split across sizes when demand follows a curve, so the core sizes sell out early and the tails sit until they are marked down. The third is time — a late delivery that compresses the full-price selling window, forcing clearance to hit the season exit.

None of these is a pricing failure. Each is an inventory or calendar failure that a markdown is then asked to clean up.

Fix the buy: open-to-buy discipline

The first guardrail is an honest open-to-buy. If receipts are reconciled to the sales and stock plan every month, an overbuy shows up as a negative OTB before the orders are placed — not as a markdown after. The discipline is not the formula; it is keeping the OTB current as actuals land, so the buy stays inside what the season can absorb.

A simple rule of thumb: if a class is already overbought on the OTB, the answer is to cancel or push receipts, not to plan the markdown that the overbuy guarantees.

Fix the shape: buy and replenish to the size curve

Aggregate sell-through hides size-level failure. A style can read as a healthy sell-through while the middle of the size run has been gone for weeks and the ends are what remains to clear. Buying to the size curve — and replenishing to it, not to an even split — keeps the sizes that actually sell in stock through the full-price window, which is where margin is made.

This is why size-level visibility is worth more than another aggregate report: it turns "the style sold through" into "we lost the core early and marked down the tails."

Protect the window: deliver on time

Every week a delivery slips is a week of full-price selling removed from the front of the season and added to the clearance at the end. On-time delivery is a margin control, not just a logistics metric. Protecting the in-store date in the time & action calendar protects the full-price window — and the markdown rate that depends on it.

What "good" looks like

Healthy markdown rates vary by channel and price point; the benchmarks give directional ranges to sense-check against. But the number to watch is not this season's markdown rate — it is whether next season's buy, size plan, and delivery dates are set up to need fewer markdowns in the first place. Markdown control is a planning habit, applied before the season, not a clearance tactic applied during it.

RetailNorthstar puts this discipline into one connected system — the buy, the size plan, and in-season sell-through reconciled live, so the decisions in this article get easier to make and harder to miss.

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