Sales plan calculator
A retail sales plan sets the sales target for a period from last year’s sales and a planned growth rate — planned sales = last year × (1 + growth %) — and phases that target across the months of the season with a seasonality profile that sums to 100%. Enter last year and a growth rate or a target total to get the planned sales, the change against last year in dollars and percent, the comp and non-comp split of that change, and the plan for each month or 4-5-4 period.
The planned sales by period are what the open-to-buy calculator and the WSSI calculator take as their sales line, so this is the number to settle before either.
Building the plan rather than checking a number — top-down against bottom-up, the reconciliation, comp against non-comp and the re-plan cadence?
Read the Guide →Enter last year’s sales and either a growth % or a target total; the target takes priority if both are filled. Comp growth is optional and is measured on last year’s sales, so enter last year for the doors and channels still trading. The inputs are pre-filled with the worked example below.
P1–P12 are months, or the periods of a 4-5-4 retail calendar; the week count is shown for the 4-5-4 case. A blank share counts as zero.
- 01Enter last year’s sales for the periodNet sales at retail for the same period last year — a season, a half or a year — restated onto this year’s calendar, with one-off events and stock-out weeks taken out. For the comp split to read correctly, enter last year for the doors and channels still trading.
- 02Enter a growth rate, or a target totalPlanned sales = last year × (1 + growth %). If the business has already been handed a number, enter it as the target total instead and the calculator back-solves the growth: target ÷ last year − 1. The target takes priority if both are filled.
- 03Split the change into comp and non-comp (optional)Enter the comp growth rate: the growth the doors and channels that traded last year are planned to deliver. Comp change = last year × comp growth %; non-comp change = total change − comp change, which is the volume new doors and new channels have to supply.
- 04Set the seasonality profile and check it sums to 100%Enter each period’s share of the total, or start from a flat profile or the 4-5-4 week profile and edit it. Planned sales for each period = planned total × that period’s share. The total row shows the sum of the shares; anything other than 100.00% is flagged with the unallocated or over-allocated amount.
Every formula the calculator runs
Each output is one line of arithmetic on the inputs above. All figures are at retail — net sales after markdowns and discounts, the same basis last year’s actuals are recorded on.
- Planned sales = last year’s sales × (1 + growth %)
- Growth % from a target = target total ÷ last year’s sales − 1
- Change against last year ($) = planned sales − last year’s sales
- Change against last year (%) = change ÷ last year’s sales
- Comp change = last year’s sales × comp growth %
- Non-comp change = total change − comp change
- Planned sales for a period = planned sales × that period’s share ÷ 100
- Unallocated share = 100% − sum of the period shares
- 4-5-4 period share = weeks in the period ÷ 52
The comp split treats last year’s sales as the comp base. That is right when every door and channel in last year’s figure is still trading. Where doors closed, their sales leave the base in both years, so enter last year for the doors still open and plan the new doors as non-comp. If the comp rate alone adds more than the total change, the calculator flags a negative non-comp figure: either something is closing, or the comp rate or the total is wrong.
The default inputs, worked by hand
The calculator opens with these figures filled in. They are illustrative — not a benchmark, not a recommended growth rate, and not drawn from any brand. A class sold $2,400,000 at retail last year; the plan is 8% growth, of which 5 points are planned from comp doors and the rest from new doors and channels.
- Planned sales = 2,400,000 × 1.08 = 2,592,000
- Change = 2,592,000 − 2,400,000 = +192,000, or +8.0%
- Comp change = 2,400,000 × 5% = 120,000
- Non-comp change = 192,000 − 120,000 = 72,000, or 37.5% of the change
The seasonality profile is a twelve-period shape in whole percentages that sums to exactly 100. Each period is the planned total times its share:
| Period | Share | Planned ($) |
|---|---|---|
| P1 | 7% | 181,440 |
| P2 | 7% | 181,440 |
| P3 | 8% | 207,360 |
| P4 | 8% | 207,360 |
| P5 | 8% | 207,360 |
| P6 | 7% | 181,440 |
| P7 | 7% | 181,440 |
| P8 | 8% | 207,360 |
| P9 | 9% | 233,280 |
| P10 | 10% | 259,200 |
| P11 | 12% | 311,040 |
| P12 | 9% | 233,280 |
| Total | 100% | 2,592,000 |
The check is that the periods add back to the total: four 7% periods are 725,760, four 8% periods are 829,440, two 9% periods are 466,560, and the 10% and 12% periods are 259,200 and 311,040 — together 2,592,000. If any share is changed without a matching change elsewhere, the total row moves off 100.00% and the calculator shows the gap in dollars.
Flat, 4-5-4 or shaped
The calculator offers three starting points for the profile. They answer different questions, and only one of them is a plan.
| Flat | 4-5-4 weeks | Shaped | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Each period’s share | 8.33% (8.34% in the first period of each quarter) | 7.69% for a 4-week period, 9.62% for a 5-week period | Last year’s shape, restated and amended |
| What it assumes | Every month sells the same | Every week sells the same | Demand has a seasonal shape |
| When to use it | A placeholder before history is in | A product with no seasonality, on a 4-5-4 calendar | Every seasonal plan |
| What it gets wrong | Unequal period lengths and all seasonality | All seasonality | Whatever distortions are not restated out |
- Flat
- 8.33% (8.34% in the first period of each quarter)
- 4-5-4 weeks
- 7.69% for a 4-week period, 9.62% for a 5-week period
- Shaped
- Last year’s shape, restated and amended
- Flat
- Every month sells the same
- 4-5-4 weeks
- Every week sells the same
- Shaped
- Demand has a seasonal shape
- Flat
- A placeholder before history is in
- 4-5-4 weeks
- A product with no seasonality, on a 4-5-4 calendar
- Shaped
- Every seasonal plan
- Flat
- Unequal period lengths and all seasonality
- 4-5-4 weeks
- All seasonality
- Shaped
- Whatever distortions are not restated out
A flat profile is a placeholder, not a plan. On a 4-5-4 calendar it is wrong twice: it gives a five-week period the same share as a four-week one, and it gives a peak month the same share as a quiet one. The 4-5-4 profile fixes the first error by weighting each period by its weeks, which is the right answer only for a product that sells the same every week of the year.
The working profile starts from last year’s shape — each period’s sales divided by the year’s — restated onto this year’s calendar: holidays moved to the week they fall in this year, a one-off event stripped, weeks capped by stock-outs corrected. Then it is amended deliberately for what this year changes, with a reason for each amendment, and the shares are re-checked to sum to 100%. The 4-5-4 calendar entry covers the 53rd week, and the phasing method itself is in how to set a sales plan.
From a sales target to a receipt budget
A sales target is not a buying number on its own. It becomes one through the stock identity, period by period: the phased sales set the end-of-period stock each period should hold, through a stock-to-sales ratio or a forward-cover target on the sales ahead, and open-to-buy solves the receipts the period still needs:
- OTB = planned end-of-period stock + planned sales + planned reductions − beginning-of-period stock − on order
Every dollar moved between periods in the profile moves receipts with it. Shift two points of the year from P11 into P10 and P10 needs more stock to open with and more receipts to land, while P11 needs less. Run the phased figures through the open-to-buy calculator for the receipt budget, and through the WSSI calculator to see the weekly closing stock and cover they produce. The receipt budget itself — what open-to-buy is, the formula at retail and at cost, and what a negative figure means — is explained in what is open to buy, and set step by step in how to set open-to-buy.
The calculator is a top-down build: one total, one growth view, one shape. A plan also needs the bottom-up build — category, channel and door lines that each carry their own basis — and a reconciliation of the two that locates the gap rather than scaling it away. That method, and the re-plan cadence once the season trades, are in how to set a sales plan; re-projecting the balance of the season from actuals is in how to reforecast in-season.
See how RetailNorthstar keeps the merchandise plan, open-to-buy and stock positions on one shared data model — so the plan, the buy and the stock position a season is traded against come from one record rather than three. See more retail tools.
Frequently asked questions
- How do you calculate a retail sales target?
- Start from last year’s sales for the same period, restated onto this year’s calendar, and multiply by one plus the planned growth rate: planned sales = last year × (1 + growth %). With this calculator’s default inputs, $2,400,000 × 1.08 = $2,592,000, a change of $192,000 or 8.0% against last year. Then phase the total across the season with a seasonality profile that sums to 100%.
- How do I work out the growth rate from a target I have been given?
- Divide the target by last year’s sales and subtract one: growth % = target ÷ last year − 1. A target of $2,592,000 against $2,400,000 last year is 2,592,000 ÷ 2,400,000 − 1 = 8.0%. Enter the target total in the calculator and it back-solves the growth for you.
- What is the difference between comp and non-comp growth in a sales plan?
- Comp growth comes from the doors and channels that traded in both years; non-comp comes from new doors, new channels and anything else without a like-for-like history. Comp change = last year × comp growth %, and non-comp change = total change − comp change. With the default inputs, 5% comp growth on $2,400,000 is $120,000, so the remaining $72,000 of the $192,000 change — 37.5% of it — has to come from non-comp sales.
- Why must the seasonality profile add up to 100%?
- Because each period’s plan is the season total times that period’s share. If the shares sum to 98%, two percent of the plan is never allocated to any period, so the months add up to less than the target and the open-to-buy built on them under-buys. If they sum to 102%, the months add up to more than the target. The calculator shows the sum and the unallocated or over-allocated amount whenever it is not 100.00%.
- Should I use a flat seasonality profile?
- Only as a starting point. A flat profile gives every period 8.33% of the year, which ignores the shape of demand and misplans almost every month. A 4-5-4 week profile — each period’s weeks ÷ 52, so 7.69% for a four-week period and 9.62% for a five-week one — corrects for unequal period lengths but still ignores seasonality. The working profile is last year’s shape restated onto this year’s calendar, then amended deliberately with a reason for each change.
- How does the sales plan feed open-to-buy?
- Planned sales by period are one of the inputs to open-to-buy: OTB = planned end-of-period stock + planned sales + planned reductions − beginning-of-period stock − on order. The phased sales plan also sets the end-of-period stock targets, through a stock-to-sales ratio or a forward-cover target on the sales ahead. Change the sales plan and the open-to-buy moves with it.
- How to Set a Sales Plan — top-down, bottom-up, comp and phasing →
- Open-to-Buy Calculator — the receipt budget the sales plan feeds →
- What Is Open to Buy (OTB)? — the definition and the formula →
- WSSI Calculator — weekly closing stock and cover →
- Stock-to-Sales Ratio Calculator — turning phased sales into stock targets →
- How to Reforecast In-Season →
- Comparable sales — glossary definition →
- 4-5-4 calendar — glossary definition →
- Merchandise plan — glossary definition →