Forward Cover

Forward cover is closing stock expressed as the number of weeks of planned forward sales it will fund — stock divided by the sales forecast for the coming weeks, not the trailing rate. Six weeks of forward cover means stock runs out in six weeks if the forecast holds and nothing else lands.

It differs from trailing weeks-of-supply in the denominator: trailing WOS divides stock by the recent actual sales rate, forward cover by the forecast of the weeks ahead. On seasonal demand the two diverge exactly when the decision matters — going into a peak the trailing rate understates demand and flatters cover, and coming out of one it overstates demand and hides the overstock. The WSSI carries forward cover for this reason, and markdown and replenishment triggers should read it rather than a trailing figure.

Because the denominator is a forecast, forward cover moves when the forecast moves — a reforecast can change every week’s cover with no movement of stock. That is a feature: it surfaces today the shortage or overstock the new forecast implies. It also means a cover figure is only as honest as the forecast beneath it, and a stale forecast quietly corrupts every trigger built on cover.